Lean Hogs See Lowest August Pork Inventory Since 2011

Lean hog futures trading ended Tuesday with $0.97 to $2.72 gains. Preliminary open interest showed net new buying of 2,496 contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/18 was $71.29, up another $1.71. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price from this afternoon’s update was $3.27 higher at $63.25. The average of analyst estimates for the Hogs & Pigs report has USDA showing 78.675m head for the national herd as of Sept 1. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be 2.5% lower yr/yr, and market hogs are forecasted 0.6% higher. Considering COVID-19 liquidations, June-August farrowings are estimated 4.3% lower yr/yr and the pig crop is forecasted to fall back 5%. Frozen pork stocks from USDA’s Cold Storage report were the tightest for the month of August since 2011. USDA showed 4678m lbs of pork in the coolers, up 7 million from July. Frozen bellies stocks were down 11.8m lbs mo/mo to the lowest inventory since October 2018 @ 30.5 million lbs. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was fell back $1.43 to $88.66 on weakness in hams. USDA estimated Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter at 485,000 head. WTD slaughter is at 963k, up 49k head yr/yr.

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