Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading 2 to 3 cents per bushel lower this morning. On Tuesday, afternoon trading faded early session gains and futures closed fractionally lower. Dec futures traded with a 7 1/2 cent range. January corn futures on the Dalian Grains Exchange set a new contract high yesterday up 21 yuan/MT to 2,496 (~ $9.27/bu). DDGS prices in China were quoted at 2,160 yuan/MT fresh out of the plant, with most sales 2,200-2,400 yuan/MT (~ $325-354/MT). EIA ethanol production data will be published later this morning. Ethanol futures closed the Tuesday session at $1.325/gal. Brazilian FOB prices continue to be 15-20 cents per bushel above US offerings in spite of their weak currency. Those multi-year high prices are also giving producers to expand plantings.

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Soybeans are 3 to 4 cents per bushel lower to start the midweek session. Yesterday, futures closed 1 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents lower. Preliminary open interest data showed long liquidation in the November contract, but net buying overall as the OI rose 1,391 contracts for the day. Soymeal futures were $1.20 to $3.90/ton higher at the closing bell, but Bean Oil futures were down 60 points on the day. Jan No.1 soybean futures on the Dalian were down 19 yuan/MT to 4,592 (~ $18.43/bu) on Sept 21. Nov No.2 bean futures closed 12 yuan/MT higher at 3,766 (~ $15.12/bu). Chinese import commitments from the US now total 698 million bushels, and the narrative is shifting to “can we get it shipped?” Reports from Argentina’s CIARA-CEC are for a 9.5% decline in soy crush on an 11.4% lower supply of beans. Official August data showed crush was 20% lower yr/yr noting ~50% of plants were offline.

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Wheat followed yesterday’s gains with a more mixed performance overnight. They are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, but a few individual contract months are fractionally higher. Domestic futures faded midday gains, but still closed the Turnaround Tuesday session in the black. CBT wheat was up 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents at the close. KC HRW futures ended the day 4 to 4 1/2 cents higher. HRS futures had 2 1/2 to 6 cent gains. Black Sea dryness left FOB prices $4.75 higher to $235.50 as 2020/21 planting is underway. Egypt’s international wheat tender was filled with 405,000 MT of Russian sourced wheat. South Korea’s MFG passed on offers for 70,000 MT of feed wheat.

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At the close for Tuesday, front month fat cattle futures were 22 cents to $1.05 in the red with triple digit losses for Feb and April. Feeder cattle futures were down triple digits as well, closing $1.47 to $1.62 in the red. September futures closed 62 cents higher before Thursday’s expiration, @ $141.70. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was a $0.75 premium to Sept futures, at $142.45 for September 21. USDA reported very limited Tuesday cash sales from $105 live basis and $161-$164 dressed. The FCE online cattle auction has only 683 head listed. Trade estimates ahead of Friday’s CoF report are for 11.355 million head of cattle on feed on Sept 1. August marketings are estimated 4.3% to 2.5% below ’19, on one less marketing day. The average of analyst estimates has placements at 5.9% above 2019, with 1.995m head placed in August. The monthly Cold Storage report on Tuesday showed 460.2m lbs of beef on August 31. That was up 20 million from July, but down 2.1% yr/yr. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the PM report, tightening the spread to $9.14 cwt. Choice boxes fell back 78 cents, and Select boxes were 48 cents stronger. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Tuesday at 121k head. WTD slaughter is at 241,000 head, outpacing the same week last year by 9,000.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures trading ended Tuesday with $0.97 to $2.72 gains. Preliminary open interest showed net new buying of 2,496 contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/18 was $71.29, up another $1.71. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price from this afternoon’s update was $3.27 higher at $63.25. The average of analyst estimates for the Hogs & Pigs report has USDA showing 78.675m head for the national herd as of Sept 1. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be 2.5% lower yr/yr, and market hogs are forecasted 0.6% higher. Considering COVID-19 liquidations, June-August farrowings are estimated 4.3% lower yr/yr and the pig crop is forecasted to fall back 5%. Frozen pork stocks from USDA’s Cold Storage report were the tightest for the month of August since 2011. USDA showed 4678m lbs of pork in the coolers, up 7 million from July. Frozen bellies stocks were down 11.8m lbs mo/mo to the lowest inventory since October 2018 @ 30.5 million lbs. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was fell back $1.43 to $88.66 on weakness in hams. USDA estimated Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter at 485,000 head. WTD slaughter is at 963k, up 49k head yr/yr.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Overnight cotton trading has futures 45 to 55 points lower in this Wednesday session. Front month cotton futures closed the day 10 to 30 points in the black. Chinese cotton futures were 12,570 yuan (~$0.8333/lb) on Sept 21. Carry on the ZXE was approximately widened to 2.09 cents Nov-Jan and 3.38 cents for Jan-Mar. Monday sales on The Seam were 2,266 bales at an average gross price of 54.53 cents/lb. USDA reported 1,275 bales were sold at spot on Tuesday, for an average price of 59.93 cents/lb. ICE reported another 479 certified bales for a deliverable stock of 7,466 bales. The Cotlook A index for Sept 21 was 70.95 c/lb, down by an additional 20 points. The AWP for cotton is 50.88 cents/lb for the week; with an LDP at 1.12 cents.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!-- [if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--></p> <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> <p>Did you know Brugler Marketing &amp; Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! 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